KSA or the Dutch regulator believes the country has a 95% channelization rate. This is thanks in part to strict rules around advertising. Data on player spending and revenue suggests the channelization rate is at 85%. Players tend to spend more when using illegal sites. The market’s GGR increased 21.2% year-on-year last year to €4 billion as revealed by KSA figures.
Two new reports released by the KSA on October 10 analyzed the size and scope of players and revenue in the gambling sector. The Autumn 2024 Monitoring Report takes a look into player behaviors and, using estimates from Nielsen-owned market research company GfK and H2 Capital. Experts claim the market’s current channelization rate is between 87% and 95%. This surpasses the 80% target set in 2021.
Provided by market research provider GfK, data tracking player visits to legal versus illegal gambling sites. It estimates the channelization rate is at 95%. This is based on the share of players who only visited legal gambling websites in the first half of the year.
Nonetheless, a second method uses H2 Capital data on revenue and player spending across both legal and illegal sites. This approach downgrades the channelization rate to 87%. It also considers that people typically wager and lose more money in the black market than in the legal market.
The KSA warns that this method could indicate an even lower channelization rate. The data includes illegal operators licensed outside the Netherlands but does not account for those that are completely unlicensed.
H2 states that this percentage will remain approximately the same until next year. However, its forecasts assume that the gambling tax will remain the same.
Michel Groothuizen, KSA chairman said of the data that this means that those who play illegally often spend more money. This keeps the Netherlands attractive to illegal parties, an undesirable situation. He added that the stricter they regulate, the greater that difference can become.
