Polymarket faces backlash for its controversial prediction markets betting on the outcomes of the ongoing California wildfires.
Recently, the fires started in the Hollywood hills and spread across Los Angeles. Five deadly fires led to the evacuation of over 137,000 people and claimed five lives.
Numerous Polymarket users have taken advantage of this opportunity. They have created different prediction markets. These markets focus on the spread of the fire, its containment, and potential political resignations. Some markets have reached nearly $100,000 in volume.
Nevertheless, a lot of online aren’t impressed with the markets and the promotion of Polymarket of them. One X user claimed that betting on a wildfire is sick. Another said that betting on such a tragedy is unarguably uncouth beyond measure.
Some users raised concerns. They worried that a wildfire prediction market could encourage bettors to start more fires. Their hope would be to make their bet succeed. One noted that the market odds are based entirely on bettor sentiment. In response to a post, Polymarket clarified that there is no 48% chance the fire will spread. Instead, 48% of people are betting on that outcome.
For Polymarket, this type of backlash isn’t new. A similar outcry occurred in 2024. The Titan submersible market saw punters betting on whether the craft would implode and kill its five passengers.
Polymarket has placed a short disclaimer. It claims to use the wisdom of the crowd to make accurate, unbiased forecasts on events. This is meant to alleviate its role in at least 10 different wildfire markets.
Polymarket said that the devastating Pacific Palisades fire is one such event. For this, Polymarket can yield invaluable real-time answers to those directly impacted, in ways traditional media cannot.
