Catholic cardinals have not yet set the date to gather and choose Pope Francis’s successor. However, bookmakers and crypto investors are already scrambling to guess who will be the next pontiff.
According to FairPlay Sports Media, which provides sports betting insights, speculation on Pope Francis’s successor is already one of the most popular betting markets in 2025. This surge comes just days after his death on April 21.
Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s chief diplomat, served as Pope Francis’s No. 2 for much of his papacy. He now leads numerous bookmakers’ lists as the top contender. Experts say this has fueled a multi-million dollar global betting market.
British bookmaker William Hill placed Cardinal Parolin as the frontrunner with 9/4 odds, making him a safe bet. Close behind is charismatic moderate Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, a Filipino who could become the first Asian pope. He holds 3/1 odds in the betting markets.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna and former special peace envoy for Ukraine under the late pope, is vying for third or fourth place across bookmakers’ lists. He remains a strong contender in the betting rankings.
Oddschecker is a website that compares online bets. FairPlay says it has a dedicated section for betting on the next pope, which has attracted over 100,000 users.
The outcome of the secretive papal conclave remains wildly unpredictable while bookmakers have carved out early favorites.
At least 15 days, and no more than 20 days after Pope Francis’s death, 135 cardinal electors are set to take part in a conclave. They will gather to pick his successor, usually from within their own ranks.
Gambling on the outcome has taken place for centuries, while the Catholic Church frowns upon over-enthusiastic betters.
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams teaches economics and finances at Nottingham Business School. He said that what was once a pursuit mostly limited to Renaissance Roman bankers and courtiers has now evolved into a multi-million dollar global market. Today, anyone can access it with just a click of a button or a tap on a crypto wallet.
