It looked like the United States would avoid a repeat of the recent government shutdown. That shutdown took place in the fall, just days ago.
Then, federal agents fatally shot Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.
The odds that the government will shut down later this week rose from roughly 10% to the high 70s on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi in the span of just a few hours following the shooting recently.
That is because Democratic senators now say they won’t vote to fund the DHS or Department of Homeland Security, which is the department that oversees ICE or Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol. This will continue until lawmakers create reforms to immigration enforcement.
Recently, Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader, said that what’s happening in Minnesota is appalling, and unacceptable in any American city. Senate Democrats will not give the votes to advance the appropriations bill if it includes the DHS funding bill.
There are only two ways of this. First is democratic senators suddenly reverse their position. Second, lawmakers are working together to break up a group of six government funding bills. These bills are set for a vote in the Senate later this week.
A short shutdown by the weekend is likely, yet even if lawmakers go with the second option.
The Senate would need to pass the six-bill package to avoid a government shutdown. This package funds DHS, the military, various agencies, and a wide range of federal grants, among other things.
The House has already passed those six bills, and the Senate has combined them into a single larger package.
The GOP may control the upper chamber. However, they can’t ignore Democrats. Democratic votes are needed to advance most major bills, including this one. This is due to the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster rule and the Republicans’ 53-seat majority.
