Many people tried to predict who the new pope would be, even putting money on it. Nevertheless, only few expected to be an American from Chicago.
According to the Polymarket website, bettors poured more than $40 million into the most recent papal conclave. This total came from just two prediction market platforms: over $30 million on Polymarket itself, and more than $10.6 million on Kalshi. This is according to a company spokesperson.
According to website of Kalshi, the new Pope Leo XIV, formerly Cardinal Robert Prevost, going in to the conclave, had odds of less than 1%. The spokesperson says traders placed over 33,000 conclave bets on Kalshi, with just 416 of them—totaling nearly $450,000—placed on Prevost.
Adds the spokesperson, the highest payout on the platform was $52,641 on a $526 bet. CNBC Make It could not confirm the identity of that bettor.
Kalshi spokesperson says that the conclave was a major draw, roughly comparable to a big sporting event. In November, the company told MarketWatch that they spent $10.6 million on the platform. Remarkably, that amount pales in comparison to the $132 million spent on the most recent U.S. presidential election.
Prediction markets operate similarly to futures. Users buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a future event. They faced scrutiny during the 2024 U.S. presidential election due to concerns about regulation, manipulation, and misinformation.
Prediction markets work much like futures. Users trade contracts that pay out depending on the result of a future event. These markets came under scrutiny during the 2024 U.S. presidential election over concerns about regulation, manipulation, and misinformation.
As of today, Kalshi users can bet on a range of events — from the release date of Grand Theft Auto VI to what White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will say in her next briefing.
