Former President Donald Trump has continued to rush on betting sites into early Wednesday morning, with bettors becoming increasingly confident of a Trump electoral win. This is in spite most of the major swing states will tallying votes.
Polymarket is probably the most famous election betting player. The blockchain-based site still leaned toward Trump after the first closures. It gives him 99.1% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 0.7% as of just after 1:30 am EST on Wednesday. In Kalshi, a New-York based prediction platform favors Trump by a 99% to 1% margin. This is a major shift from Saturday when Harris briefly led on the site. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi legally operates in the United States as do rival PredictIt and brokerages Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.
Robinhood/Interactive Brokers a retail trading giant is the newest major entrant into election betting. Just like Interactive Brokers, it offers election betting through ForecastEx. It also gives Trump about a 98% win probabilityz compared to 2% for his Democratic opponent.
The London-based sites, Betfair and Smarkets are not open to Americans. However, both assign similar chances of a Trump win, with Betfair favoring the Republican by a 97% to 3% margin and Smarkets by a 97% to 2% tilt.
At 6pm EST, odds around the time of the first major poll closures were roughly 60% for Trump and 40% for Harris on high-profile betting platforms.
The betting market’s aggregated odds for a Trump victory as of 1:30am EST is 98.3%. This is according to the Election Betting Odds tool. It tracks odds across Betfair, Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket, and Smarkets.
Trump had secured 247 Electoral Collage votes as of 1:30 am. Meanwhile, according to the Associated Press, Harris had 214. According to The New York Times live presidential forecast, just after midnight Wednesday, it considered Trump likely to win the election, with a 95% chance of victory. However, North Carolina and Georgia both went to Trump. These were the only two of seven crucial battleground states that had been called.
